Is the Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) a reliable indication of a recession?

If I were to bet on something, a better predictor would be the reversal of the Treasury bond yield curve (US), 1-year to 10-year!!!

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic indicator that is designed to predict future economic activity. It is composed of ten forward-looking economic indicators, including average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, new orders for consumer goods and materials, and the interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and the federal funds rate.

In general, a declining trend in the LEI can be a sign of an upcoming recession, as it suggests that economic activity may slow in the future. However, it is important to note that the LEI is just one indicator among many, and it is not always a reliable predictor of economic downturns. Other factors, such as changes in employment, consumer spending, and business investment, can also provide insight into the health of the economy.

It is always a good idea to consider a range of economic indicators when evaluating the state of the economy and trying to forecast future developments.

The best indicator will be how much the patriotic movement in the states is regaining the upper hand in narrative and administration, in direct proportion one should expect bankster chess moves. That is, the economic crisis will not come just like that, it will be thrown on the hump of some event, and the fed will be able to say "we could handle inflation if it wasn't for this..." It's like blizzard, World of Warcraft expansions have long been ready, if some big competitor releases a game that threatens them, Blizzard suddenly announces an add-on just before its competitor's release. The goal of banksters is to cause a crisis, as always, in the most favorable moment for themselves, i.e. when they cut it off, for example: the opponent's momentum, when there are the fewest options for declines, they wait for the moment and press the button in the least expected moment, although the window narrows, it has is to be somewhere with a high degree of certainty, somewhere in 2023.

Probably not

Don't judge a book by its cover and don't judge the market by one indicator.

According to many economists and analysts, the Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) is one of the best tools for forecasting future recessions in the economy. Of course, no indicator can guarantee 100% accuracy, but the LEI collects and analyzes a range of data on economic trends such as industrial orders, retail sales, stock price indices and more. As a result, many companies and investors use the LEI as a tool to support investment decisions in the financial market. Of course, not all recessions were predicted by the LEI. For example, the LEI did not predict a recession in the 1970s, but it was a period when most economic indicators were inconsistent and difficult to interpret. Ultimately, the LEI is one of many tools that should be considered in any economic analysis or investment planning process. It should be remembered that every indicator and every economic forecast is associated with a certain degree of uncertainty, but with proper analysis and interpretation, the LEI can be a very useful tool to support investment decision making.