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Are we facing deflation now (2023/2024)?

Will we go from "temporary inflation", through "interest rates will be raised for a long time", to deflation?
Will we go from "temporary inflation", through "interest rates will be raised for a long time", to deflation?
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31 answers


P
If they raise interest rates and keep them for a long time, then just as they exaggerated with the lack of reaction to inflation, they will now exaggerate with the overreaction in the other direction, so it is very possible that if the Central Banks do not let go at the right moment, it will be a second nightmare - deflation.
If they raise interest rates and keep them for a long time, then just as they exaggerated with the lack of reaction to inflation, they will now exaggerate with the overreaction in the other direction, so it is very possible that if the Central Banks do not let go at the right moment, it will be a second nightmare - deflation.

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3 likes

N
Awarded

I don't think we can count on inflation falling, but can we count on deflation? In my opinion no.

Unfortunately, more and more companies are closing down, which is another blow for consumers because not only will less goods and services be produced, but those that will be more monopolized.

I think that slowing down and returning inflation to 2-3% will be a great success, although I think that in the next 2 years it may be difficult.

Unless there is some news or currency reform. However, I wouldn't take it as a good scenario, rather a necessary evil. However, at the moment, it's not so bad to reach for such actions.

Personally, I am not a supporter of high interest rates because money still exists, it just changed hands from the "street" to the bank. When it comes to borrowers. If we analyze the deposits, this is a very short-term solution because the deposits end eventually, and people get benefits for freezing their money.

There are two effective ways of deflation that I know of: producing more goods and permanently disappearing money from the market (e.g. by removing fixed money from circulation, e.g. by a government that spends less capital than it receives)

I don't think we can count on inflation falling, but can we count on deflation? In my opinion no.

Unfortunately, more and more companies are closing down, which is another blow for consumers because not only will less goods and services be produced, but those that will be more monopolized.

I think that slowing down and returning inflation to 2-3% will be a great success, although I think that in the next 2 years it may be difficult.

Unless there is some news or currency reform. However, I wouldn't take it as a good scenario, rather a necessary evil. However, at the moment, it's not so bad to reach for such actions.

Personally, I am not a supporter of high interest rates because money still exists, it just changed hands from the "street" to the bank. When it comes to borrowers. If we analyze the deposits, this is a very short-term solution because the deposits end eventually, and people get benefits for freezing their money.

There are two effective ways of deflation that I know of: producing more goods and permanently disappearing money from the market (e.g. by removing fixed money from circulation, e.g. by a government that spends less capital than it receives)

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A
Certainly in the middle of 2023
Certainly in the middle of 2023

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P
I think so
I think so

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Anonymous

Under the current government, it is not even possible to reduce inflation, not to mention the opposite phenomenon... -.-

Under the current government, it is not even possible to reduce inflation, not to mention the opposite phenomenon... -.-

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c

Deflation and disinflation are different concepts. We may encounter with disinflation but not deflation.

Deflation and disinflation are different concepts. We may encounter with disinflation but not deflation.


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e
Awarded

Though I'm not an economist or financial specialist, I believe we have a (much) higher chance of seeing continuous inflation, rather than deflation coming years. The inflation in coming years will not be as high as it is in EU today, but I 'fear' we'll not be heading to deflation any time soon. I know in my country salaries are growing a lot to compensate for the heavy inflation we see these days. This in effect can continue to spiral. The goal of the EU is to have an inflation of around 2%. Deflation is something unwanted. Though we had years of deflation since the last financial crisis. Anyways central banks will always try and steer towards (some) inflation since this is how our economic system is built over the last, let's say, 75 years. Our system needs inflation to keep the economy going, ie to keep the money flowing. In the last decade, we've seen plenty of new money entering our economy because of central banks printing money. However, we didn't see inflation growing, we even had years of deflation. I believe we are now paying the price for this.

Though I'm not an economist or financial specialist, I believe we have a (much) higher chance of seeing continuous inflation, rather than deflation coming years. The inflation in coming years will not be as high as it is in EU today, but I 'fear' we'll not be heading to deflation any time soon. I know in my country salaries are growing a lot to compensate for the heavy inflation we see these days. This in effect can continue to spiral. The goal of the EU is to have an inflation of around 2%. Deflation is something unwanted. Though we had years of deflation since the last financial crisis. Anyways central banks will always try and steer towards (some) inflation since this is how our economic system is built over the last, let's say, 75 years. Our system needs inflation to keep the economy going, ie to keep the money flowing. In the last decade, we've seen plenty of new money entering our economy because of central banks printing money. However, we didn't see inflation growing, we even had years of deflation. I believe we are now paying the price for this.


1 like

m
"The government will quickly begin to reduce interest rates now, as the economy has slowed down significantly, and consumption is decreasing. The government prefers to have an inflation rate of 4-5 percent in 2024 rather than worsening economic conditions. Additionally, the higher the interest rate, the greater Poland's debt will be. Therefore, in the near future, interest rates will regularly decrease with few interruptions, approximately once per quarter. If the government's strategy yields results and we don't end up like Turkey, then congratulations are in order."
"The government will quickly begin to reduce interest rates now, as the economy has slowed down significantly, and consumption is decreasing. The government prefers to have an inflation rate of 4-5 percent in 2024 rather than worsening economic conditions. Additionally, the higher the interest rate, the greater Poland's debt will be. Therefore, in the near future, interest rates will regularly decrease with few interruptions, approximately once per quarter. If the government's strategy yields results and we don't end up like Turkey, then congratulations are in order."

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1 like

P

Deflation is a situation in which the overall price level is lower than in the previous period, and the prices of individual goods and services also fall. Deflation is the opposite of inflation, which means an increase in prices.

Forecasting prices in the future is difficult because it depends on many factors, such as monetary policy, economic situation and technological changes. Some forecasts suggest that global inflation may be low in the near future, but we cannot predict how fast it will fall or whether it will be caused by deflation.

It should be remembered that deflation is not always a negative phenomenon. In some cases, deflation can mean that products and services become cheaper for consumers, which is good for the economy. However, when deflation is too strong and lasts too long, it can lead to economic slowdown and unemployment.

To sum up, it is not known exactly what awaits us in terms of prices in the near future. As such, it is important to stay up to date with economic data and market analysis to better understand what developments can affect prices and what steps can be taken to deal with them.

Deflation is a situation in which the overall price level is lower than in the previous period, and the prices of individual goods and services also fall. Deflation is the opposite of inflation, which means an increase in prices.

Forecasting prices in the future is difficult because it depends on many factors, such as monetary policy, economic situation and technological changes. Some forecasts suggest that global inflation may be low in the near future, but we cannot predict how fast it will fall or whether it will be caused by deflation.

It should be remembered that deflation is not always a negative phenomenon. In some cases, deflation can mean that products and services become cheaper for consumers, which is good for the economy. However, when deflation is too strong and lasts too long, it can lead to economic slowdown and unemployment.

To sum up, it is not known exactly what awaits us in terms of prices in the near future. As such, it is important to stay up to date with economic data and market analysis to better understand what developments can affect prices and what steps can be taken to deal with them.

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M

If deflation comes, it will definitely not be this year... we have a lot of work ahead of us to deal with the existing crisis and inflation.

If deflation comes, it will definitely not be this year... we have a lot of work ahead of us to deal with the existing crisis and inflation.

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N

What awaits the world economy, no one can know. For the first time in history, a situation that people, because of the Russian aggressors, no longer objectively consider as the basis of an economic crisis of new times, which humanity has not seen before. Two years of shutting down enterprises in quarantine - the consequences of this will reverberate in people's lives for a long time, and thanks to Putin's wild act, the possibility of shortening this time has been reduced to the "impossible" position. The world is cracked and this wound bleeds

What awaits the world economy, no one can know. For the first time in history, a situation that people, because of the Russian aggressors, no longer objectively consider as the basis of an economic crisis of new times, which humanity has not seen before. Two years of shutting down enterprises in quarantine - the consequences of this will reverberate in people's lives for a long time, and thanks to Putin's wild act, the possibility of shortening this time has been reduced to the "impossible" position. The world is cracked and this wound bleeds

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P
A drop in inflation is possible, but deflation is not, for example due to the printing of money by central banks, which will continue
A drop in inflation is possible, but deflation is not, for example due to the printing of money by central banks, which will continue

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They say money goes bad every 30 years, so inflation continues.
They say money goes bad every 30 years, so inflation continues.

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a
I'm fine with deflation, I have savings....
I'm fine with deflation, I have savings....

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p
It's hard to say if it will change in a year or two, hopefully it won't be worse
It's hard to say if it will change in a year or two, hopefully it won't be worse

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Deflation and inflation are interchangeable, however, looking at the current currency market and the state of the world economy, there is nothing to count on deflation, only inflation will slowly slow down to about 10% and then it will decrease to a maximum of 8-9% and deflation is rather a phenomenon in Poland it will not appear, first of all, despite the collapse of the zloty, it is not that bad at all, additionally, Poland has a number of foreign investment plans, so I don't think deflation can be expected
Deflation and inflation are interchangeable, however, looking at the current currency market and the state of the world economy, there is nothing to count on deflation, only inflation will slowly slow down to about 10% and then it will decrease to a maximum of 8-9% and deflation is rather a phenomenon in Poland it will not appear, first of all, despite the collapse of the zloty, it is not that bad at all, additionally, Poland has a number of foreign investment plans, so I don't think deflation can be expected

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T
Awarded
It would be good, but I don't think we can count on it. Given the current situation, it will be good if we avoid hyperinflation.
It would be good, but I don't think we can count on it. Given the current situation, it will be good if we avoid hyperinflation.

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T
Awarded
Let's hope that this will not happen, unfortunately, inflation will not stop, the only thing we can count on at the moment is that prices will rise, but at a much slower pace than before
Let's hope that this will not happen, unfortunately, inflation will not stop, the only thing we can count on at the moment is that prices will rise, but at a much slower pace than before

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1 like

P
Awarded
From the point of view of consumers, deflation is beneficial because falling prices mean that they can either buy more goods or save more money. In the short term, deflation is usually not harmful, but if it persists for too long, it can have a very negative impact on the economy as a whole. The most serious effects of deflation are: Deflationary spiral - occurs when people, expecting a further fall in prices, prefer to wait with purchases and save money instead of spending it. This results in a further reduction in demand and further price reductions, reduced profitability of production and investments - companies stop investing and reduce production, wages drop and increase in unemployment, increase in debt of households and enterprises - repayment of loans and credits becomes more and more difficult as the real value of installments increases and interest, reduction of state budget revenues - e.g. due to lower revenues from the tax on goods and services. In a market economy, both deflation and too high inflation are dangerous. Both phenomena can trigger a recession. Low inflation is considered optimal, i.e. when prices are rising, but at a moderate pace, because it stimulates economic development. According to economists, an increase in prices is not dangerous for the economy if it does not exceed 5% per year. However, doubts arise about deflation if we look at the electronics market. For two decades, its prices have been falling all the time, but the market has not collapsed. Sales of new generations of smartphones are booming, even though their prices may drop by several dozen percent within 6 months. Summing up, we have been dealing with deflation in the electronics market for many years, and yet this market segment is doing well.
From the point of view of consumers, deflation is beneficial because falling prices mean that they can either buy more goods or save more money. In the short term, deflation is usually not harmful, but if it persists for too long, it can have a very negative impact on the economy as a whole. The most serious effects of deflation are: Deflationary spiral - occurs when people, expecting a further fall in prices, prefer to wait with purchases and save money instead of spending it. This results in a further reduction in demand and further price reductions, reduced profitability of production and investments - companies stop investing and reduce production, wages drop and increase in unemployment, increase in debt of households and enterprises - repayment of loans and credits becomes more and more difficult as the real value of installments increases and interest, reduction of state budget revenues - e.g. due to lower revenues from the tax on goods and services. In a market economy, both deflation and too high inflation are dangerous. Both phenomena can trigger a recession. Low inflation is considered optimal, i.e. when prices are rising, but at a moderate pace, because it stimulates economic development. According to economists, an increase in prices is not dangerous for the economy if it does not exceed 5% per year. However, doubts arise about deflation if we look at the electronics market. For two decades, its prices have been falling all the time, but the market has not collapsed. Sales of new generations of smartphones are booming, even though their prices may drop by several dozen percent within 6 months. Summing up, we have been dealing with deflation in the electronics market for many years, and yet this market segment is doing well.

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k
Awarded
It is very possible that this will happen, but it depends on many factors and it is difficult to assess it unequivocally.
It is very possible that this will happen, but it depends on many factors and it is difficult to assess it unequivocally.

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M
It's hard to talk about deflation so far with such inflation. Such iflation is not just a number that can suddenly drop or return to normal it can be compared to the price of bitcoin from the moment it was created until now Inflation has shot up and with this mountain it will run for sure it will never fall to the same level it used to be
It's hard to talk about deflation so far with such inflation. Such iflation is not just a number that can suddenly drop or return to normal it can be compared to the price of bitcoin from the moment it was created until now Inflation has shot up and with this mountain it will run for sure it will never fall to the same level it used to be

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Anonymous
Awarded

So

So

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O
Yes, there is a real risk that we may be heading towards deflation in the years 2023/2024. Faced with "transitory inflation" and the possibility of a prolonged increase in interest rates, there is a chance that the economy may recoil and head towards deflation. Everything depends on many factors, such as monetary policy and the overall state of the global economy.
Yes, there is a real risk that we may be heading towards deflation in the years 2023/2024. Faced with "transitory inflation" and the possibility of a prolonged increase in interest rates, there is a chance that the economy may recoil and head towards deflation. Everything depends on many factors, such as monetary policy and the overall state of the global economy.

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P
During the era of PiS, this will not happen.
During the era of PiS, this will not happen.

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C

Very likely

Very likely

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M

Unfortunately, no, we will be getting up from our knees for a long time, the most important thing is that it does not affect society too much, which has already been hit in the ass

Unfortunately, no, we will be getting up from our knees for a long time, the most important thing is that it does not affect society too much, which has already been hit in the ass

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Anonymous

Z całą pewnością NIE

Z całą pewnością NIE


Anonymous

Not really, we'll wait for that

Not really, we'll wait for that

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k

I wouldn't count on deflation any time soon, but inflation will drop

I wouldn't count on deflation any time soon, but inflation will drop

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r

Poland lost PLN 212 billion due to pandemics in 2020 alone, and your income decreased by half, because the closed services and tourism companies during the pandemic caused less income tax to be paid and this was a loss of the state, expenses caused inflation, and gas and oil costs. We have to wait for Poland to recover,

Poland lost PLN 212 billion due to pandemics in 2020 alone, and your income decreased by half, because the closed services and tourism companies during the pandemic caused less income tax to be paid and this was a loss of the state, expenses caused inflation, and gas and oil costs. We have to wait for Poland to recover,

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