Should an investor with a three-year investment horizon consider buying an ETF with exposure to long-term US Treasury bonds currently (28.04.2024)?
The deflationary phase of economic slowdown is slowly coming to an end, and ahead of us on the horizon appears a timid deflationary phase of economic recovery.
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Before making a decision, analyze the impact of three scenarios of changes in the interest rate path in the USA on our potential investment.
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The first scenario is an increase in rates by 0.25pp, the second scenario is keeping rates at the current level for the next year, and the third scenario involves a decrease in rates by 1pp. over the next year.
The deflationary phase of economic slowdown is slowly coming to an end, and ahead of us on the horizon appears a timid deflationary phase of economic recovery.
|
Before making a decision, analyze the impact of three scenarios of changes in the interest rate path in the USA on our potential investment.
|
The first scenario is an increase in rates by 0.25pp, the second scenario is keeping rates at the current level for the next year, and the third scenario involves a decrease in rates by 1pp. over the next year.
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"...on the horizon, a shyly deflationary phase of economic revival appears..." - so that this light at the end of the tunnel does not turn out to be a train coming... In a situation where every day the global debt bubble could burst, investing with a 'three-year horizon' seems to me like stepping boldly into a minefield. But... some 'investors' don't seem to care about it."
"...on the horizon, a shyly deflationary phase of economic revival appears..." - so that this light at the end of the tunnel does not turn out to be a train coming... In a situation where every day the global debt bubble could burst, investing with a 'three-year horizon' seems to me like stepping boldly into a minefield. But... some 'investors' don't seem to care about it."
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