What will the unemployment be at the end of 2020?
As you know, the introduction of an epidemic in the country was associated with the temporary (and in many cases, unfortunately permanent) closure of a large number of companies. How do you think this whole situation will affect the unemployment level in Poland?
As you know, the introduction of an epidemic in the country was associated with the temporary (and in many cases, unfortunately permanent) closure of a large number of companies. How do you think this whole situation will affect the unemployment level in Poland?
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One thing is certain: unemployment in Poland at the end of 2020 will be significantly higher than the year before, i.e. at the end of December 2019. The reason is, of course, the unprecedented closure of many sectors of the economy, mainly small and medium-sized service companies that generate the lion's share of the national GDP. The question is how will this affect the unemployment rate? Data for April already show that it will be high, because instead of fewer people without full-time jobs due to their employment in odd jobs, eg in agriculture, the number of employees has decreased.
However, it is difficult to state unequivocally how much unemployment awaits us at the end of the year. Based on the analyzes of economists, it can be said that the increase in the number of unemployed people will be the highest in history. For example, mBank analysts indicate that at the end of 2020 unemployment will amount to as much as 13%. Specialists from Credit Agricole forecast more optimistically, predicting a ceiling of 8.2%, and according to Pekao it will stop at 11%
For comparison, according to the Central Statistical Office, the current unemployment rate is around 5.8%. Certainly, this year will be the worst in the last thirty years when it comes to the increase in the number of unemployed people. The longer the "defrosting" of the economy lasts and the more restrictions remain, the worse it will be for the labor market. There is also the question of the second and third waves of coronavirus, because if they come as predicted and the rulers decide to close the economy again for this reason, the effects in the form of unemployment and related poverty may be difficult to imagine.
One thing is certain: unemployment in Poland at the end of 2020 will be significantly higher than the year before, i.e. at the end of December 2019. The reason is, of course, the unprecedented closure of many sectors of the economy, mainly small and medium-sized service companies that generate the lion's share of the national GDP. The question is how will this affect the unemployment rate? Data for April already show that it will be high, because instead of fewer people without full-time jobs due to their employment in odd jobs, eg in agriculture, the number of employees has decreased.
However, it is difficult to state unequivocally how much unemployment awaits us at the end of the year. Based on the analyzes of economists, it can be said that the increase in the number of unemployed people will be the highest in history. For example, mBank analysts indicate that at the end of 2020 unemployment will amount to as much as 13%. Specialists from Credit Agricole forecast more optimistically, predicting a ceiling of 8.2%, and according to Pekao it will stop at 11%
For comparison, according to the Central Statistical Office, the current unemployment rate is around 5.8%. Certainly, this year will be the worst in the last thirty years when it comes to the increase in the number of unemployed people. The longer the "defrosting" of the economy lasts and the more restrictions remain, the worse it will be for the labor market. There is also the question of the second and third waves of coronavirus, because if they come as predicted and the rulers decide to close the economy again for this reason, the effects in the form of unemployment and related poverty may be difficult to imagine.
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