I currently assume that it will be no earlier than the year 2025. Russia already has serious problems and both sanctions and enormous expenses on wars have left their mark, but society shows a fairly high tolerance for problems and I think I still need a lot of incentives to force the end of the war on the authorities.

I think Ukraine will also survive this year, I don't think international support will suddenly disappear and they are also well fortified on their borders, and even if they won't be able to recapture anything, they can still defend themselves.

However, I don't think it will last as long as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia is not the Soviet Union anymore and has significantly fewer resources from the start, not to mention that a significant part of the infrastructure has not been renovated since the Soviet times and now they have even less money for it.

Will the war in Ukraine end in 2024?