The Clock is Ticking to get in on the Biggest Bull Run to date.
As we continue to accumulate and set up for what I believe will be one of the biggest crypto bull runs to date, it has become increasingly evident that some big players are already quietly mining Bitcoin in the background, and I will explain why I believe it is a sovereign entity.
If accurate, when this news eventually becomes more public, it will set off a sovereign national security race to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible. When that happens, the entire dynamic of crypto changes, and Bitcoin suddenly becomes the only legitimate lifeboat in a sinking global economy. Corporations, countries, wealth funds and Granny will all be lining up to cross the crowded bridge to safety as we welcome them from the other side with wallets wide open.
In 2017, the Bitcoin hashrate hit roughly 14 EH/s as BTC peaked in December of 2017. For the next year the Bitcoin price fell continuously towards its low approximately 1 year later in Dec of 2018. Surprisingly, the hashrate continued to rise dramatically until September of 2018 (9 months from the peak), with a more than 4x increase to 58 EH/s.
In the following 3 months until Dec of 2018, the hashrate promptly fell 50% as miners capitulated and the accumulation phase of that cycle began. The Bitcoin accumulation phase lasted from that miner capitulation in December 2018 until October of 2020. In that 2 year time period, the hashrate climbed 5x to 157 EH/s in October of 2020.
During the bull market that peaked in November of 2021, the hashrate was quite volatile dropping 50% and recovering back above the Oct 2020 hashrate at the tail end of the bull market. Since the peak in Nov 2021, the hashrate has climbed almost non-stop to over 400 EH/s as of Oct 2023, peaking over 500 EH/s recently. It has been setting new ATH’s every month for all of 2023.
What does all this mean?
The Bitcoin halving is less that 200 days away, at which point the cost to mine each Bitcoin will double. Estimates on the current cost to mine Bitcoin vary greatly, since the energy cost inputs are highly variable and not widely reported. Current estimates on the cost to mine one Bitcoin (the average break even cost) are approximately $17,000 USD.
In April of 2024 (the estimated BTC halving date), the cost will double as the Bitcoin block rewards drop by half. All else being equal, it seems rather strange that the hashrate continues to rise dramatically while energy costs climb and the halving approaches, particularly given that break even costs will soon significantly exceed the current price of Bitcoin and miners will be mining at a loss.
This means that some currently unknown big players are spending significant capital to add 100’s of EH/s all while energy prices trend upwards, BTC price stagnates, and the halving approaches.
Whoever is spending all this cash to build out new mining operations is evidently price agnostic. The only entities I know of that do not care if they are making money are the governments who are drunk on fiat gluttony, and cannot afford to fall behind in the event that Bitcoin ownership becomes a national security necessity.
Janet Yellen fixing the economy playing Uno by Herself
The global economy is fast approaching the stage of Fiat overdose, whereby the increasingly obscene amounts of money printing are no longer enough to satiate the gluttonous Fiat addicts that are the world’s governments.
The boat is sinking clear as day, and those few with eyes to see it are looking for life rafts and scrambling for the exits. The captain knows it, his crew knows it, and yet they all continue to assure everyone that everything is fine as they quietly look for a way out.
Dear old Janet Yellen, Senile Grandpa Joe, Frozen Mitch Mconnell and all the other geriatric leaders in both parties that so frequently reassure us how great the economy is are all quietly scrambling.
It is a senile game of “I Know, you know”. The US knows Russia knows. Russia knows the US knows that they know. They all know that the others know they know that we know. Eventually someone will openly admit it, or it will no longer be poorly concealed, and then we are all off to the races and the parabolic crypto bull run really takes off.
Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!
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