•3 years
GOLD. An investment HIT!!! or.................. not necessarily?
I was prompted to write this article by the answer of FOUNER - Dariusz Marcinkowski of October 21, 2022, quoted: "It is better to invest your own savings in gold than currencies because there is inflation and money loses its purchasing power and gold retains." to the FOUNDER's question - jakubskowron "What currencies to invest in?" Because I base my investment decisions on numbers, not recommendations, I made my own analyzes in relation to a long-term investor investing in USD and investing in PLN. From the analysis of the views of the world's leading investors, it is possible to draw some interesting conclusions about gold (I don't know if they are right, you will judge for yourself), i.e.: - gold protects the buyer against the devaluation of the purchasing power of fiat money (as indicated by Dariusz), - the stock market in the long has a greater growth potential than gold, - gold has a low correlation with the stock market (0.07-0.22), - gold is a safe haven during sudden, dynamic and usually short-term turmoil on the stock market (when a crash occurs), - gold gains in the environment of a weak US dollar. Considering the above, I asked myself the following questions: 1. Is it correct to say that gold protects the buyer against inflation, and the currency only depreciates and compared to what? 2. Is it worth investing only in gold, or should you combine it with the stock market? 3. How do these assets behave in the same periods? 4. Can gold be used as a hedge for an equity portfolio in times of turbulence on equity markets? 5. Is Gold Inversely Correlated to the US Dollar? 6. What impact does the exchange rate have on the rate of return of a Polish investor? I think that the answers to these questions will help many people understand what role gold can play in the portfolio of a long-term investor and in what market and macroeconomic environment it is worth having more or less gold in the investment portfolio. I have included the results of my individual analyzes in the form of a list, which is divided into three parts. In order to obtain answers to the above questions, I analyzed the last 40 years for the gold market and the MSCI WORLD index from the perspective of an American investor (PART A of the statement), taking into account the cumulative USD CPI inflation indices in the analyzed periods. In the case of a Polish investor, I analyzed the period of the last 30 years in PART B (the period when we underwent redenomination and the market economy was born in Poland), taking into account the cumulative CPI PL inflation indices in the periods under review. The impact of the USDPLN exchange rate on the rate of return on exposure to the gold market and MSCI WORLD in the case of a Polish investor was also taken into account. For the gold market, the total margins for the purchase and sale of physical gold and their impact on the final rate of return were additionally taken into account (respectively for the American and Polish markets). This is important for investors who prefer this way of investing in gold. The adoption of lower margins will be justified in the case of one-off investments of approx. PLN 200,000. PLN and larger. PART C of the statement was used to analyze the impact of gold behavior in the period of declines on the stock market in the context of its use to reduce the volatility of an investment portfolio containing exposure to stock markets and gold. The period 2000-2007 was included in the analysis to examine the impact of the depreciation of USD against PLN (approx. 40.6% over a period of approx. 8 years) on the returns of a Polish investor on the GOLD and MSCI WORLD markets. As data sources I used: https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ceny-handel/wskazniki-cen/wskazniki-cen-towarow-i-uslug-konsumpcyjne-pot-inflacja-/roczno-wskazniki-cen- goods-and-services-consumers, https://stooq.pl, https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.WORLD I encourage you to draw your own conclusions and discuss. I will present my conclusions soon.
I was prompted to write this article by the answer of FOUNER - Dariusz Marcinkowski of October 21, 2022, quoted: "It is better to invest your own savings in gold than currencies because there is inflation and money loses its purchasing power and gold retains." to the FOUNDER's question - jakubskowron "What currencies to invest in?" Because I base my investment decisions on numbers, not recommendations, I made my own analyzes in relation to a long-term investor investing in USD and investing in PLN. From the analysis of the views of the world's leading investors, it is possible to draw some interesting conclusions about gold (I don't know if they are right, you will judge for yourself), i.e.: - gold protects the buyer against the devaluation of the purchasing power of fiat money (as indicated by Dariusz), - the stock market in the long has a greater growth potential than gold, - gold has a low correlation with the stock market (0.07-0.22), - gold is a safe haven during sudden, dynamic and usually short-term turmoil on the stock market (when a crash occurs), - gold gains in the environment of a weak US dollar. Considering the above, I asked myself the following questions: 1. Is it correct to say that gold protects the buyer against inflation, and the currency only depreciates and compared to what? 2. Is it worth investing only in gold, or should you combine it with the stock market? 3. How do these assets behave in the same periods? 4. Can gold be used as a hedge for an equity portfolio in times of turbulence on equity markets? 5. Is Gold Inversely Correlated to the US Dollar? 6. What impact does the exchange rate have on the rate of return of a Polish investor? I think that the answers to these questions will help many people understand what role gold can play in the portfolio of a long-term investor and in what market and macroeconomic environment it is worth having more or less gold in the investment portfolio. I have included the results of my individual analyzes in the form of a list, which is divided into three parts. In order to obtain answers to the above questions, I analyzed the last 40 years for the gold market and the MSCI WORLD index from the perspective of an American investor (PART A of the statement), taking into account the cumulative USD CPI inflation indices in the analyzed periods. In the case of a Polish investor, I analyzed the period of the last 30 years in PART B (the period when we underwent redenomination and the market economy was born in Poland), taking into account the cumulative CPI PL inflation indices in the periods under review. The impact of the USDPLN exchange rate on the rate of return on exposure to the gold market and MSCI WORLD in the case of a Polish investor was also taken into account. For the gold market, the total margins for the purchase and sale of physical gold and their impact on the final rate of return were additionally taken into account (respectively for the American and Polish markets). This is important for investors who prefer this way of investing in gold. The adoption of lower margins will be justified in the case of one-off investments of approx. PLN 200,000. PLN and larger. PART C of the statement was used to analyze the impact of gold behavior in the period of declines on the stock market in the context of its use to reduce the volatility of an investment portfolio containing exposure to stock markets and gold. The period 2000-2007 was included in the analysis to examine the impact of the depreciation of USD against PLN (approx. 40.6% over a period of approx. 8 years) on the returns of a Polish investor on the GOLD and MSCI WORLD markets. As data sources I used: https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ceny-handel/wskazniki-cen/wskazniki-cen-towarow-i-uslug-konsumpcyjne-pot-inflacja-/roczno-wskazniki-cen- goods-and-services-consumers, https://stooq.pl, https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.WORLD I encourage you to draw your own conclusions and discuss. I will present my conclusions soon.
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