Will the war in Serbia break out in summer?

The EU continues to keep Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia in the corridor to the EU, although the region may fall into the arms of Russia. Russia has long been an influential force in the Western Balkans, in wide ranging activities, from helping to form pro-Russian associations to building significant stakes in oil and gas companies. Russia is fueling ethnic disputes between Bosniaks and Serbs, and Milorad Dodik, the current Serbian member of Bosnia and Herzegovina's presidency, in return supported the creation of two self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine, taking side by side with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a three-person presidency made up of one member from each of the three main ethnic groups in the country: Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats (in order of size). The state consists of two autonomous entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, and a third unit, the Brčko district. Dodik is also behind plans to create a new Serbian army and is allied with a separatist movement that could split Bosnia and Herzegovina in half. Germany has just announced it will freeze infrastructure projects worth € 120m (£ 101m) in the Bosnian Serb region over concerns over secessionist policies. And the UK government announced sanctions against Dodik in April 2022, including a travel ban, for undermining the stability of the region. Analysts fear that Dodik's movement could threaten the troubled peace that arose in the wake of the 1999 Balkan War. Despite this, EU officials did not even attend the press conference scheduled with Western Balkan leaders after the recent two-day summit of both groups. The most obvious explanation for this impasse is that priority is always given to another priority - now Ukraine. But this approach was seen as an affront, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and North Macedonia. The EU continues to be dissatisfied by taking a different approach towards Ukraine to that set out for the Western Balkans. The EU's stance will not go unnoticed by Russia as it continues its plans to further undermine political and public support for the EU and transform nations into its supporters. She has already had some success in Serbia, where only less than half of the population is now in favor of joining the EU. The approaching war will be the best test, may it not break out in the near future. TR