The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic indicator that is designed to predict future economic activity. It is composed of ten forward-looking economic indicators, including average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, new orders for consumer goods and materials, and the interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and the federal funds rate.

In general, a declining trend in the LEI can be a sign of an upcoming recession, as it suggests that economic activity may slow in the future. However, it is important to note that the LEI is just one indicator among many, and it is not always a reliable predictor of economic downturns. Other factors, such as changes in employment, consumer spending, and business investment, can also provide insight into the health of the economy.

It is always a good idea to consider a range of economic indicators when evaluating the state of the economy and trying to forecast future developments.

Czy wskaźnik wyprzedzający Conference Board (LEI) wiarygodnie wskazuje recesję?